Uncharted territory
An historic day of high parliamentary drama is about to unfold as the first serious effort to of the House of Commons in 300 years unfolds. This is uncharted territory so nobody knows what will happen.
Speaker Martin will try today to pre-empt his sacking by making a statement which will be a mixture of apology (for past brutal treatment of MPs and, perhaps, for failing grasp the need for radical reform of expenses) and makeover (he will now become the voice of reform).
His statement will be worth watching. Apologies don't come naturally to the gruff Glaswegian and many MPs will think it too late for them anyway. Nor is it just his unprecedented rudeness that has annoyed MPs: he has been a roadblock to the and personally done incredibly well out of the current expenses regime. Many MPs will see him as an unlikely champion of reform.
To sweeten his words, the Speaker will announce that he intends to stand down at the next election. He has no alternative: if he was to indicate that he intends to preside over the next Parliament there would be an . Even having to put up with him until, probably, June next year will seem a year too long for many. But the mechanics of ousting a Speaker are difficult.
MPs will quickly have to decide if a promise and timetable for reform couple with retirement in a year is enough. Some say that, with further revelations about the mess in the Fees Office (over which the Speaker ultimately presides), that it is not -- but will they push their luck?
We will find out in their attitude to Douglas Carswell's motion of no confidence in the Speaker. Will it even be allowed to be tabled. Mr Carswell has done an impressive job in recruiting a string of well-known cross-party Parliamentarians for his bill. Whether it can attract enough support to bring an end to Speaker Martin's controversial reign depends on how the Speaker conducts himself during his own statement -- and in questions afterwards from MPs he clearly loathes. Probably best if he avoids giving anybody a verbal "Glasgow handshake".
P.S. today carries a powerful leader calling for an immediate election. It wants one because it thinks the people are fed up with the current Parliament over the expenses scandals, it thinks the Brown government has run its course and it wants one now so that there is still time for a referendum on the Lisbon treaty.
Though the editorial is not quite explicit, the clear implication is that there should be a . The Sun has back Labour at election time since 1997. As I've hinted before I'm now in no doubt it will be backing the Tories in the election of 2010. The Sun's political clout is not what it was; but the Tories will be happy to have its support nevertheless, especially since they've had to make no concessions to get.
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