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The battle for fourth place in the Oldham by-election

Arif Ansari | 18:49 UK time, Tuesday, 4 January 2011

BNP Leader Nick Griffin and BNP candidate Derek Adams

BNP Leader Nick Griffin and BNP candidate Derek Adams

The Leader of the British National Party, Nick Griffin, was in Oldham East and Saddleworth for his first day of campaigning on Tuesday.

There was plenty of speculation that Mr Griffin himself would be the candidate.

But he is not on the ballot paper.

"I was probably going to be the candidate," Mr Griffin told me.

"But over the Christmas and New Year period when I needed to get the election addresses done and photographs, I was snowed-in in Wales.

"I couldn't get here.

"Derek Adams was available. He's a big local character. So I'm very happy to be supporting him."

Derek Adams is probably best known for running the Ace of Diamonds - the BNP's favourite pub in Manchester, before the city council subjected it to a compulsory purchase order.

The got almost 6% of the vote at the general election.

UKIP Leader Nigel Farage in a pub

The was narrowly behind them with 4% of the vote.

Drive through the constituency and it's difficult to miss the billboards advertising UKIP's candidate, the North West Euro .

, UKIP's Leader, started a two-day campaign visit on Tuesday to support his colleague.

And the BNP is very much in his sights.

"I was absolutely determined we chose a strong candidate and fought a big campaign," Mr Farage told me in a local pub.

"I want us to thrash the BNP here.

"There's no room for that kind of extremism in British politics."

This apparent battle for fourth place might have more significance than is immediately obvious.

In previous elections the have won a large number of protest votes.

Where will those voters turn now that the party's in government?

UKIP believes that many voters who supported them in the European elections, turned to the Lib Dems at the general election. Despite the fact that the parties have such divergent views on Europe.

How many of those disenchanted Lib Dem voters exist is one of the critical unknowns in this by-election.

How many will turn to ?

How many will turn to minor parties like UKIP or the BNP?

And how many might turn to their coalition partners, the ? Not as a protest vote but because they believe the Tories can now win.

The answers to these questions will help decide who wins here.

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